Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
India, the world's third-largest oil consumer, spent 2.5 billion euro on buying crude oil from Russia in September, 14 per cent less than the previous month, a European think tank said. India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in September behind China, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
'Indian refiners can operate without Russian crude from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs'
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar defends India's purchase of Russian oil, stating it is not the largest purchaser and that the US had previously supported such actions to stabilize energy markets. He also addresses concerns about tariffs and trade relations with the US.
United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, describing it as "a big step" in efforts to increase global pressure on Moscow.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict and its impact on energy supplies with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and EU's Foreign Policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
India's merchandise exports experienced a slight decrease in February, while imports surged due to increased gold and silver purchases, leading to a widened trade deficit. The West Asia crisis is expected to further impact trade in the coming months.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd is estimated to have earned 724 million euros (about Rs 6,850 crore) from exporting fuel made from Russian crude oil to the US in one year, an European think tank said in a report. "From January 2024 to the end of January 2025, the US imported EUR 2.8 billion of refined oil from six refineries in India and Turkey that process Russian crude.
What is more surprising is that a surge in Russian oil supplies has come after the G7 imposed stringent sanctions on Moscow.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Indian OMCs have not been buying Iranian or Venezuelan crude which is actually sanctioned by US. OMCs have always complied with the price cap of $60 for Russian oil recommended by the US.
His assertion came after Trump claimed that his "friend" PM Modi has assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, a move he described as a big step toward increasing pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and foreign fund outflows.
As stringent sanctions imposed by the European Union and US are crippling business and trade, desperate Russian oil companies are offering huge discounts to India, provided a payment mechanism to bypass the SWIFT ban is quickly approved by the government. According to sources familiar with the development, Russian oil firms are offering 25-27 per cent discount to the dated Brent crude prices. State-run Rosneft is one the biggest oil companies that supply crude to India.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
The turning point came with the appointment of Sergio Gor as the US ambassador to India.
The unexpected missile attack on a second India-bound ship carrying Russian crude, just three weeks after the first, has complicated matters for domestic refiners. India now counts the Vladimir Putin-led nation as its biggest oil supplier, according to Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler, and these attacks come on top of US sanctions since December, where vessels that bring crude to India are facing heightened scrutiny. Panama-registered Pollux, which loaded crude at the Sheshkaris oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk on January 24, was scheduled to deliver the medium, sour Urals grade to Paradip port on February 28.
India's exports to the US contracted 8.6 per cent to $6.3 billion in October, while imports rose 13.9 per cent to $4.5 billion leading to a trade surplus of $1.8 billion during the month.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
There is no payment problem for Russian crude, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Wednesday. He said there is no proposal to cut retail fuel prices at the moment. Addressing a press conference, the minister said India enjoys a buyers' position and foreign suppliers are approaching Indian companies with offers to sell oil.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
'India is cosying up to Xi Jinping. They don't need the Russian oil. It's a refining profiteering scheme.'
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Former White House trade advisor Peter Navarro accuses India of being an 'oil money laundromat' for Russia, alleging that India's oil purchases are funding Putin's war in Ukraine. The accusations come amid existing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the US.
US President Donald Trump has announced a 25 per cent plus tariff on India from Aug 1. Trump, describing India as a "friend", said the US has done relatively "little business" with the country because of its high tariffs.
Chinese import tariffs have unwittingly come to India's assistance to help boost imports of US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at rates cheaper than what it pays for supplies from West Asia, according to industry sources and shipping data.
India's brittle energy security is inextricably linked to two opposing paradigms - fossil fuels, and the transition to green energy. The first powers the present; the second paves the way for Viksit Bharat in 2047.
A resurgence in Saudi Arabian supplies of crude oil to India coupled with an attack on an Iraqi tanker in August carrying crude to Europe may result in improved bargaining power for India with West Asian and Russian suppliers for winter supplies. Shipments of Saudi oil rebounded in September from August, surging to the highest since March while Russian oil shipments rose marginally as Saudi Arabia tried to claw back market share in Asia, according to industry sources and ship tracking data.
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
India has become Apple's main export hub to the US, which consumes over $40 billion worth of iPhones annually.
Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (M-o-M) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
The era where nations thrived through rigid alignments is giving way to an age where the connective State defines power. For India, that era has arrived, points out Dr Nishakant Ojha.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
India may see a structural shift in supplies of crude oil with Russia emerging as a key source of fuels, a development that reduces New Delhi's dependence on West Asian oil, gives Indian refiners better bargaining power with price-setter Saudi Arabia, and improves overall energy security. The unexpected surge in supplies of Russian crude in the last few months, unthinkable until the war in Ukraine, may also deliver other unforeseen gains such as boosting exports of refined fuels to Europe, which historically has counted on Russian shipments. India has jumped on to the bandwagon of opportunistic buying of Russian crude but if calibrated carefully, Urals crude can be a long-term asset for India refiners.
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